The Impact of Monetary Policies on Economic Welfare in Iran with a Focus on Localized Indicators of Sustainable Development

Background and Objectives: In recent years, approaches to economic development have shifted towards multidimensional and welfare-oriented concepts, so that traditional indicators such as Gross Domestic Product can no longer solely reflect the real quality of life and human development. Social welfare is a comprehensive and multidimensional concept encompassing both material and non-material aspects, including income, employment, education, health, social security, and civic participation. Accurate measurement of social welfare requires the use of composite and localized indices that take into account the cultural, economic, and social characteristics of each country. Meanwhile, monetary policies, as one of the main tools of macroeconomic policymaking, play a significant role in influencing social welfare. These policies not only aim to stabilize inflation and promote economic growth but, considering their distributive consequences and direct and indirect effects on income distribution, access to resources, and financial stability, can impact the level of welfare. Precise evaluation of this relationship, especially in transition economies like Iran, requires utilizing localized indices and advanced econometric models. Due to its specific economic and social characteristics, including chronic inflation, severe monetary fluctuations, and investment challenges, Iran faces significant problems in the domain of social welfare.
Materials and Methods: examining the impact of monetary policies on social welfare using composite localized indices can help policymakers design more effective and context-appropriate policies. This study aims to develop and apply a localized index for measuring social welfare and analyse the effects of selected monetary policy variables during the period from 1991 to 2023 in Iran. Relying on macroeconomic data and econometric models, this research endeavours to scientifically and practically analyse the relationship between monetary policies and social welfare and to offer evidence-based policy recommendations.
Results:  There is a positive and significant relationship between the volume of bank credits and the composite and localized social welfare index, and a negative and significant relationship between the money supply volume and the real interest rate with the composite and localized social welfare index.
A negative effect of the money supply issued by the central bank on the composite and localized social welfare index has been observed. Furthermore, the research results indicate a negative relationship between money supply volatility—as an indicator of monetary policy instability—and the composite and localized social welfare index.
Conclusion:  Given the negative and significant effect of the money supply issued by the central bank on social welfare, it is essential that the central bank prevents excessive expansion of the monetary base.  It is recommended that monetary policies focus on inflation targeting and controlling liquidity growth through open market operations and reduction of government’s monetary budget deficits. The positive impact of bank credit volume on social welfare underscores the importance of public access to productive financial resources. Bank loans should be directed toward productive economic sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, education, and healthcare. A comprehensive and accurate credit rating system should be established to facilitate access to credit for low-income groups. Restrictions should be imposed on the provision of non-productive loans (e.g. speculative loans)